Occidental College · Diplomacy & World Affairs · Fall 2026

DWA 293: Directed Research — The Energy Transition

• Instructor: Prof. Igor Logvinenko · ilogvinenko@oxy.edu
• Office: Johnson Hall, by appointment
• Units: 2 (CR/NC)
• Meetings: biweekly, Fridays 9:00–10:00 AM, on Zoom (first meeting Fri, Sep 4)
• Workload: ~6 hours/week per the College Credit Hour Policy

Schedule and Key Dates

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All meetings 9:00–10:00 AM on Zoom. Registrar dates: add deadline for 2-unit courses Fri, Oct 9 · drop without a "W" by Fri, Oct 2 · fall break Oct 15–16 · grades due Dec 15.

Accessing Documents and Readings

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Reading List

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Do not read everything. Starred items are the shared foundation; read them in full at the pointed pages. Optional items are background or case-specific — use them when your case calls for it. "→ §n" points to the section of the concepts primer the reading serves.

The ★ core load totals roughly 200 pages across the semester, alongside your own 12–15-source bibliography.

1 · Commitment, institutions, and the state

• ★ North, D. & B. Weingast (1989), "Constitutions and Commitment," Journal of Economic History 49(4): pp. 803–832 (30 pp.). DOI→ §2: origin of credible-commitment theory.
• · Jacobs, A. (2011), Governing for the Long Term, Cambridge UP — ch. 2, "Theorizing Intertemporal Policy Choice," pp. 28–72; shorter entry: ch. 1, pp. 3–27.→ §2: costs now, benefits decades away.
• · Hall, P. & K. Thelen (2009), "Institutional Change in Varieties of Capitalism," Socio-Economic Review 7(1): pp. 7–34. DOI→ §4: policy stability and institutional change.
• · Öniş, Z. (1991), "The Logic of the Developmental State," Comparative Politics 24(1): pp. 109–126 (review essay). DOI→ §5: state capacity ("legislate it").
• · Wade, R. (2018), "The Developmental State: Dead or Alive?" Development and Change 49(2): pp. 518–546. DOI→ §5: the developmental-state debate, updated.
• · Gabor, D. (2021), "The Wall Street Consensus," Development and Change 52(3): pp. 429–459. DOI→ §3: critique of de-risking.

2 · The politics of energy transitions

• ★ Aklin, M. & J. Urpelainen (2013), "Political Competition, Path Dependence, and the Strategy of Sustainable Energy Transitions," AJPS 57(3): pp. 643–658 (16 pp.). DOI · on file→ §5: the theory spine of "legislate it."
• ★ Breetz, H., M. Mildenberger & L. Stokes (2018), "The Political Logics of Clean Energy Transitions," Business and Politics 20(4): pp. 492–522 (31 pp.). DOI · on file→ §5: how policy coalitions form and defend transitions.
• ★ Meckling, J., N. Kelsey, E. Biber & J. Zysman (2015), "Winning Coalitions for Climate Policy," Science 349(6253): pp. 1170–1171 (2 pp.). DOI · on file→ §5: "carrots buy sticks."
• ★ Shen, S.V. (2024), "Can Autocracy Handle Climate Change?" PS: Political Science & Politics 57(4): pp. 487–492 (6 pp.). DOI→ §6: regime type, policy outputs, and implementation.
• · Hochstetler, K. (2020), Political Economies of Energy Transition, Cambridge UP — framework: ch. 1, pp. 1–29; incumbents and utilities: ch. 4, pp. 132–174.→ §7: incumbent lock-in.
• · Steffen, B., T. Matsuo, D. Steinemann & T. Schmidt (2018), "Opening New Markets for Clean Energy," Business and Politics 20(4): pp. 553–587. DOI · on file→ §5: the comparison text for "import it."
• · Burke, M. & J. Stephens (2018), "Political Power and Renewable Energy Futures," Energy Research & Social Science 35: pp. 78–93. DOI Companion: Burke & Stephens (2017), "Energy Democracy," ERSS 33: pp. 35–48 · on file→ §5: the theory spine of "sidestep it."
• · Min, B. (2015), Power and the Vote, Cambridge UP — ch. 2, "Public Goods, Elections, and the Poor," pp. 14–35.→ §1: electricity as a political good, behind arrival vs. conversion.
• · Brass, J., S. Carley, L. MacLean & E. Baldwin (2012), "Power for Development," Annu. Rev. Environ. Resour. 37: pp. 107–136. DOI→ §5: evidence on distributed generation.
• · Gilley, B. (2012), "Authoritarian Environmentalism and China's Response to Climate Change," Environmental Politics 21(2): pp. 287–307; Beeson, M. (2010), "The Coming of Environmental Authoritarianism," Environmental Politics 19(2): pp. 276–294 · on file→ §6: the environmental-authoritarianism debate.
• · Carley, S. & D. Konisky (2020), "The Justice and Equity Implications of the Clean Energy Transition," Nature Energy 5(8): pp. 569–577. DOI→ §5: distributional effects (grid secession).
• · Juhász, R. & N. Lane (2024), "The Political Economy of Industrial Policy," Journal of Economic Perspectives 38(4): pp. 27–54. DOI→ §5: economics of industrial policy.

3 · Global political economy and geopolitics of energy

• ★ Keohane, R. & D. Victor (2011), "The Regime Complex for Climate Change," Perspectives on Politics 9(1): pp. 7–23 (17 pp.). DOI · on file→ §4–5: external anchoring; the climate regime complex.
• · Colgan, J., R. Keohane & T. Van de Graaf (2012), "Punctuated Equilibrium in the Energy Regime Complex," Rev. Int. Organizations 7(2): pp. 117–143. DOI · on file→ §4–5: the energy regime complex.
• · Newell, P. (2021), Power Shift, Cambridge UP — ch. 2, "Theorising Energy Transitions," pp. 27–61.→ §3: global political economy of transitions.
• · Hirschman, A. (1945/1980), National Power and the Structure of Foreign Trade, U. California Press — Part I, ch. II, pp. 13–52; influence-effect core pp. 17–33.→ §3: asymmetric interdependence.
• · Vakulchuk, R., I. Overland & D. Scholten (2020), "Renewable Energy and Geopolitics: A Review," Renew. Sustain. Energy Rev. 122: art. 109547. DOI→ §3: review of the renewables-geopolitics literature.
• · Jerzyniak, T. & A. Herranz-Surrallés (2024), "EU Geoeconomic Power in the Clean Energy Transition," JCMS 62(4): pp. 1028–1045. DOI · on file→ §6: the EU toolkit as geoeconomic power.
• · Murphy, L.T. & N. Elimä (2021), In Broad Daylight: Uyghur Forced Labour and Global Solar Supply Chains, Sheffield Hallam University — Executive Summary, pp. 7–8 · on file→ §5: forced labour in solar supply chains.
• · Altiparmak, S.O., C.G. Thies & S.T. Shutters (2025), "The Geoeconomics of Renewable Energy," Sustainability 17(13): art. 5998. DOI · on file→ §3: China–EU supply-chain leverage.
• · Americo, A., J. Johal & C. Upper (2023), "The Energy Transition and Its Macroeconomic Effects," BIS Papers No. 135 (27 pp.). bis.org · on file→ §3: macroeconomic effects of the transition.
• · Hochstetler, K. & C. Inoue (2019), "South-South Relations and Global Environmental Governance," Rev. Bras. Polít. Int. 62(2): e004. DOI · on file→ §5: development finance coalitions from the South.
• · IRENA (2024), Geopolitics of the Energy Transition: Energy Security. irena.org→ §3: energy security and transition geopolitics.

4 · How solar got cheap, and where it goes

• ★ Nemet, G. (2019), How Solar Energy Became Cheap, Routledge — ch. 1, "Introduction," and ch. 2, "Answer" (~35 pp.).→ §1: how solar hardware became cheap.
• ★ Helveston, J. & J. Nahm (2019), "China's Key Role in Scaling Low-Carbon Energy Technologies," Science 366(6467): pp. 794–796 (3 pp.). DOI · on file→ §4: China's role in scaling low-carbon technology.
• · Nahm, J. (2021), Collaborative Advantage, Oxford UP (open access) — ch. 3 and ch. 5. oup.com→ §4: national specialization in green manufacturing.
• · Nahm, J. & E. Steinfeld (2014), "Scale-Up Nation," World Development 54: pp. 288–300. DOI→ §4: article-length version of the book's argument.
• · Way, R., M. Ives, P. Mealy & J.D. Farmer (2022), "Empirically Grounded Technology Forecasts and the Energy Transition," Joule 6(9): pp. 2057–2082. DOI→ §4: technology cost forecasts.
• · Nijsse, F. et al. (2023), "The Momentum of the Solar Energy Transition," Nature Communications 14: 6542, pp. 1–10 (core pp. 2–6). DOI→ §4: projected solar growth.
• · Smil, V. (2016), "Examining Energy Transitions," Energy Research & Social Science 22: pp. 194–197 (4 pp.). DOI→ §4: counterpoint on transition speed; read against Nijsse.

5 · Accessible entry points

• ★ Chase, J. (2024), Solar Power Finance Without the Jargon, 2nd ed., World Scientific — the project-finance / cost-of-energy chapter and the how-markets-set-power-prices (PPA) chapter (~18 pp.).→ §3: project finance, PPAs, and cost of energy.
• ★ IEA (2024), Reducing the Cost of Capital (Cost of Capital Observatory) — Executive Summary (~10 pp.). iea.org→ §3: cost of capital in emerging markets.
• ★ US DOE (2023), National Transmission Needs Study — Executive Summary, pp. ii–xi (10 pp.) · on file→ §8: transmission as a separate constraint.
• · IEA (2023), Electricity Grids and Secure Energy Transitions — Executive Summary. iea.org→ §8: grid connection queues worldwide.
• · St. John, J., "Lots of Demand, Too Little Grid," Canary Media · on file→ §8: the US interconnection backlog.
• · Choi, Zhou & Laxton / WRI (2022), "How to De-Risk Low-Carbon Investments." wri.org→ §3: de-risking instruments.
• · IEA (2022), Solar PV Global Supply Chains — Executive Summary. iea.org→ §4: the solar supply chain.
• · Rathi, A. (2023/2024), Climate Capitalism, John Murray / Greystone — ch. 2, "The Bureaucrat".→ §4: China's clean-energy industrial policy.

6 · Region-specific (Croatia / Serbia / Greece)

• ★ Victoria, M. et al. (2020), "Early Decarbonisation of the European Energy System Pays Off," Nature Communications 11: 6223, pp. 1–9 (core pp. 2–7). DOI→ §6: the "small dose" reading of hydro-heavy grids.
• ★ Energy Community Secretariat (2025), Annual Implementation Report — Serbia country profile. energy-community.org→ §6: rule transposition and enforcement in Serbia.
• ★ pv magazine (Oct 2025), "Croatia's Regulatory Deadlock Is Strangling Large-Scale Solar." pv-magazine.com→ §8: grid access and permitting in Croatia.
• · Fotis, G., T.I. Maris & V. Mladenov (2025), "Risks, Obstacles and Challenges of the Electrical Energy Transition in Europe: Greece as a Case Study," Sustainability 17(12): art. 5325 (32 pp.). DOI · on file→ §8: grid integration constraints in Greece.
• · IEA (2023), Greece 2023 Energy Policy Review — Executive Summary. iea.org→ §6: Greek auctions, permitting, and grid reform.
• · AURES II (2020), "Auctions for the Support of Renewable Energy in Greece." aures2project.eu→ §6: Greek renewable-energy auction design.
• · Gubenko, S. (2025), "Chinese-Led Energy Projects in the Western Balkans," Journal of East-West Business (online first). DOI→ §5: Chinese finance and Serbia's Kostolac B3.
• · Buchanan Ponczek, C. & M. Siddi (2024), "Energy Justice through Policy," FIIA Working Paper 139 (15 pp.). fiia.fi · on file→ §6: EU and US energy-justice policy compared.
• · European Commission, NECP assessments (Croatia, Greece). europa.eu Serbia's NECP is assessed by the Energy Community Secretariat.→ §6: NECP monitoring.

7 · Data sources

Ember (capacity and generation) · IEA Cost of Capital Observatory · IRENA capacity and finance statistics · V-Dem (regime measures) · GOGLA (off-grid solar) · Eurostat · national TSO/regulator data: HROTE and HOPS (Croatia), EMS and EPS (Serbia), ADMIE and DAPEEP (Greece). The IEA and DOE reports in category 5 double as data sources for cost-of-capital and grid-queue figures.

Course Description

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This course brings you into an active faculty research project on the political economy of the renewable energy transition in Eastern Europe, Central Asia, and Africa. You take one defined slice of the project — a country case or a policy mechanism (prosumer compensation, storage deployment, transition financing) — and execute it from a research plan through an annotated bibliography to a final research memo of about 2,500 words.

A faculty-led research trip to Croatia in May–June 2027 (through the Richter program) is planned for fieldwork on the region's energy transition. Work in this course supports an application; participation is not guaranteed.

This is a directed research course: the instructor supplies the research agenda, source suggestions, and feedback; you supply the work. Per the College's Credit Hour Policy, a 2-unit course means roughly 6 hours of work per week (~84 hours over the semester), nearly all of it independent reading, source-gathering, and writing. There are no lectures.

How This Course Runs

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You are in charge of your research. The group meets roughly every other week. Come to each meeting with something on the table: progress made, sources found, or a specific problem you are stuck on. Between meetings, email after you have tried to resolve the question yourself, and say what you tried.

At meetings the instructor gives direction and feedback, reads anything placed in the shared folder before the meeting, and discusses where your piece fits in the larger project.

Checkpoints

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All three are required for Credit.

1. Research plan (2–3 pages) — Fri, Sep 11. A plan for the semester's work on your case or mechanism, covering:
   • Your case or mechanism and its scope: the country and period, or the mechanism and where you will observe it.
   • Your research question, stated in one sentence, and 2–3 sentences on how it connects to the larger project.
   • A first pass through the framework: what the arrival and conversion ledgers show (or where you will look); who must believe what promise, for how long, guaranteed by whom; and which source of commitment — imported, joined, legislated, sidestepped — you expect to matter.
   • Your first five sources, with 1–2 sentences each on what you expect the source to contribute.
   • The data sources (category 7 of the reading list) you plan to use and what you expect them to show.
   • One falsifiable expectation: a statement of what evidence would prove your initial read wrong.
   • A week-by-week plan to the end of the semester, keyed to the meeting and checkpoint dates above.
   • Open questions and anticipated obstacles, to discuss at Meeting 2.
2. Annotated bibliography + outline (12–15 sources, 1-page memo outline) — Fri, Oct 23. Scholarly and policy sources; 2–3 sentences per entry on what it contributes.
3. Research memo (8–10 pages) — Fri, Dec 4. A self-contained, cited memo on your slice of the project, written so a reader new to the case understands what happened, why, and what it means for the larger project.

Earning Credit (CR)

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• All three checkpoints submitted on time at college-level quality.
• Attendance at biweekly meetings, prepared. One absence with advance notice is acceptable; a second requires a conversation.
• The 24-hour pre-meeting submission rule respected.

No Credit results from a missing checkpoint, a pattern of unprepared or canceled meetings, or work that does not reach credible quality after the offered revision.

Policies

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AI tools. You may use AI tools for search, summarization, and feedback on drafts. You may not submit AI-generated text as your memo prose, and you are responsible for verifying every citation and factual claim. Fabricated or unverified citations are an academic integrity violation.

Academic integrity. Occidental's academic conduct policies apply. When in doubt about sourcing or collaboration, ask before submitting.

Accommodations. Students registered with Disability Services should send accommodation letters in the first two weeks; deadlines can be adjusted.